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Sleepin’ and Reachin’: A Fantasy Football Guide

 

Fantasy Players To Avoid Reaching On

 

Matt Ryan- QB- Atlanta Falcons

Man did this guy have a 2016 season to remember. Just under 5,000 yards and a 70% completion percentage, paired with 38 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions  It’s almost as I can read your thoughts….’This guy won MVP of the whole freakin’ league last season, how can he be a reach?’

Simple.

As amazing as his 2016 season was, expecting him to repeat his MVP season is foolish. That is not to say he won’t be in the top-tier of fantasy football quarterbacks, but the difference in points between him and others directly below him, will not be worthy of an early round draft reach.

Chances are someone in your fantasy league will take a first round flier out on him, just make sure your not that guy.

Eddie Lacy– RB- Seattle Seahawks

 Only a few years removed from being a fantasy football darling, Lacy is getting a fresh start out west. A change of scenery can usually do a struggling player well, but there are just too many red flags here to have any trust in Lacy being a starter on your fantasy squad.

First off, the long going discussion about him carrying extra weight. a story that seemed to be fading away until just recently. The Seahawks have $55,000 a month tied into Lacy every time he hits his weight goals for the month. After hitting that goal twice his agency, SportsTrust Advisors, helped spread the word.

Problem is August was a new month and brought a new weigh-in. What happened after the weigh-in?

Radio silence.

Although not the end of the world, it is definitely a red flag. Throw in his injury history and the two young and eager backs behind him on the depth chart, Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise, and the flag raising begins to look like a Color Guard gathering. Drafting Lacy in your fantasy draft any place before the 5th round should be considered a reach with him.

Julian Edelman– WR- New England Patriots

Putting Edelman in my reach problem is no fault of his own. There is no scare of an injury issue or decline in talent. He still has arguably the best quarterback in NFL history throwing him the football. He also has plenty of potential to put together a great season.

What’s the problem then? Edelman in no longer the head sheriff in town.

With the a stealing of Brandin Cooks away from the New Orleans Saints this offseason, the Patriots will move Edelman back into the slot. Although he has a solid chance of being successful, Cooks is an explosive talent who will snatch targets away from Edelman. Rob Gronkowski being healthy heading into 2017 won’t help him in the targets game either.

He is listed as a reach, but only from the elite standpoint. After all, the ageless wonder Tom Brady is still lining up behind center. Edelman will put up numbers worthy of a starting lineup, just don’t pull the trigger on him in the first two rounds.

 

Leonard Fournette- RB- Jacksonville Jaguars

Tremendous potential pours off this young man, but from what I’ve seen in mock drafts, he is getting selected rather hastily. Fournette will now line up in a game that is much faster and tougher, and it may take some time for him to adjust. Of course it is just training camp, but watch the video above. Fournette is usually the one giving out those types of punishments, not receiving them.

Also consider the situation of the Jaguars backfield.

Just one year ago, the Jaguars gave Chris Ivory a five-year, $32 million contract. He joined T.J. Yeldon who showed promise as a rookie. Last season, both of them struggled which has to make one believe is the reason they drafted Fournette in the first place. That being said, with Ivory getting some loot, there is no way the Jaguars are just going to forget about him. There is a buyout clause after this season, so could essentially be playing for his contract. This hurts his fantasy stock and with him going early in the third round, someone in your draft is reaching for him despite this.

 

Jarvis Landry– WR- Miami Dolphins

 

Another player with a tremendous amount of talent. Problem is this is another player that is also surrounded by red flags.

The Dolphins were solid last season, posting a 10-6 record last season and making the playoffs for the first time since 2008. A major part of the Dolphins’ success last season was due to Landry and his 94 catches. From a fantasy perspective, he was targeted 131 times, or 44 more times than the next guy in line, DeVante Parker.

Seems like all is good in Miami, right? Yeah not so much.

First off, starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury that may require season-ending surgery. This caused the Dolphins to hit the wire and bring Jay Cutler out of retirement. Sure Cutler and Dolphins Head Coach Adam Gase are familiar from their time together in Chicago, but no matter how you look at it, a decline in production has to be expected.

Jarvis Landry also now has the outside distraction of domestic incident hanging over his head. Although no charges have been filed, the story became widespread, and the NFL could suspend Landry under the league’s personal conduct policy. A suspension to a player like Landry who should only be considered a WR2 at best could plummet his value.

Not helping matter that even with 94 catches last season, Landry only found the end zone four times. Landry has been reached for as early as the 4th round, with problems swirling you may want to take an extra second to reconsider drafting the young wideout.

Other players to avoid reaching on

LeGarrette Blount– RB- Philadelphia Eagles- Average Round: 5th

Spencer Ware– RB- Kansas City Chiefs- Average Round: 3rd

Andrew Luck– QB- Indianapolis Colts- Average Round: 5th

Davante Adams– WR- Green Bay Packers- Average Round: 4th

Delanie Walker– TE- Tennessee Titans- Average Round: 7th

 

Next Page: Sleepers To Keep Your Eye On

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